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Entering 2023, many investment experts and economists predicted the U.S. was heading toward a recession, but so far growth has been surprisingly strong. Vanguard is perhaps best known as a leader in low-cost passive index investing in both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. The firm does have active products, however, such as the Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCORX) . On Friday, Vanguard announced it was launching two new municipal bond index ETFs — Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEI) and Vanguard California Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEC). Even as the economy starts to slow, Devereux said Vanguard expects a "hawkish hold" from the Fed on interest rates.
Persons: Sara Devereux, CNBC's Bob Pisani, Devereux, Dereveux, They're Organizations: Vanguard's Investment Management Group, The Commerce Department, Vanguard, Bond Fund, Bond, Vanguard California, CNBC Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Pro Exclusive: Vanguard's bond chief expects a recession in 2024. How she's preparing her fundsCNBC's Bob Pisani sits down with Sara Devereux, Vanguard's global head of fixed income for an exclusive interview. She discusses why she thinks that a recession is looming next year.
Persons: Bob Pisani, Sara Devereux, Vanguard's
Global Head of Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux said on Thursday the probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed this year stood at 50%. Beyond that, the U.S. central bank was likely to maintain a "hawkish hold" on rates. "We don't think they're going to cut rates anytime soon ... the Fed may have more work to do." Vanguard, which manages $8 trillion in assets, said its base case scenario remained for a shallow recession in 2024 as higher interest rates hit the economy. "The downside risk ... is the Fed overshoots and they drive us into a deeper recession."
Persons: Sara Devereux, Jerome Powell, Devereux, Davide Barbuscia, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Vanguard, Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for over four years since succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about the morale at Goldman Sachs. Solomon said there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." Meanwhile, Solomon's expensive foray into consumer banking raised the ire of some longtime Goldman partners, as Insider has previously reported. The fresh faces among the Goldman Sachs executives who took the stage at the bank's investor day highlight the leadership changes under Solomon.
NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, increased exposure to large bank's bonds during the banking rout in March, taking advantage of cheap valuations, according to a report seen by Reuters. "The banking troubles offered a brief window to add large banks at compelling valuations," said the report, written by Sara Devereux, global head of fixed income group, and her team. "We had little exposure to troubled banks and do not see evidence of a systemic risk to the financial system," it said. Core inflation, however, is likely to be sticky, according to Vanguard, limiting the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy in coming quarters. "Barring a major economic surprise, we think the Fed will hold policy rates high for longer than the market currently expects."
Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.
David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for more than four years since succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about the morale at Goldman Sachs. In reality, Solomon said, there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." "At the moment, year-to-date, our turnover is at a 5-year low, not just for partners, in the whole firm," Solomon added. Here is a running list of Goldman's partners that have retired from the firm — or moved on to roles at other companies — since Solomon became CEO.
David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for more than four years after succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about morale at Goldman Sachs. In reality, Solomon said, there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." "At the moment, year-to-date, our turnover is at a 5-year low, not just for partners, in the whole firm," Solomon added. Here is a running list of Goldman's partners that have retired from the firm — or moved on to roles at other companies — since Solomon became CEO.
Total: 8